Oil Price Forecast 2026: What Brent and WTI Could Do This Year
The 2026 oil price forecast is shaped by three powerful forces: a historic Middle East conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, a record global supply surplus, and diverging projections from the EIA, IEA, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan. Brent crude could end the year anywhere between $60 and $95 per barrel.
The oil market in 2026 is unlike anything analysts predicted twelve months ago. A conflict in the Middle East, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and one of the largest supply surpluses in a decade have turned what was supposed to be a quiet, bearish year into one of the most volatile in recent memory.
If you're trying to understand where crude oil prices are headed — and why the forecasts vary so wildly — you're in the right place.
The oil price forecast for 2026 refers to the expected trading range of Brent and WTI crude benchmarks across the year, shaped by supply-demand balances, geopolitical disruptions, OPEC+ policy, and macroeconomic conditions.
At the start of 2026, the dominant narrative was simple: too much oil, not enough demand growth. The IEA projected a supply surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day. J.P. Morgan set a bearish base case of $60 per barrel for Brent. Then, on 28 February 2026, US-Israeli air strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and the entire forecast landscape shifted overnight. Brent briefly touched $120 per barrel, its highest level since the COVID-era shock. As of early April 2026, the market is repricing in real time.
In this article, you will learn what the leading institutions actually forecast for Brent and WTI, what the key drivers are, what the scenarios look like in practice, and how to think about the rest of the year.
Key Takeaways
Brent crude surged above $90 per barrel in March 2026 following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil demand normally transits.
The EIA's March 2026 forecast projects Brent averaging around $70 per barrel by year-end, while J.P. Morgan maintains a full-year average closer to $60 assuming conflict eases.
Global oil supply was set to outpace demand by up to 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026 before the Middle East disruption — the largest projected surplus since 2015–2016.
US crude oil production is forecast to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026, a new record, adding further supply-side pressure once the geopolitical risk premium fades.
Contents
Where Oil Prices Stand Right Now
What the Major Forecasters Are Saying
The Key Drivers That Will Shape Prices in 2026
Three Scenarios for the Rest of the Year
Where Oil Prices Stand Right Now
To understand the 2026 oil price forecast, you first need to know where we started and what broke the market open.
Through most of 2025, oil prices were under pressure. Brent spent the year broadly below $75 per barrel as non-OPEC production from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana added supply faster than demand could absorb it. WTI shed roughly 20% across 2025. Analysts at the time were debating whether OPEC+ could hold together well enough to prevent a slide toward $50.
Then February 2026 arrived. Brent had already climbed on tensions between the US and Iran, trading around $70 per barrel heading into the final days of the month. On 28 February, US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Within days, Brent futures were approaching $120 per barrel — a 50% rise from the start of the year in a matter of weeks.
📊 Key Stat: Approximately 20% of global oil demand — around 20 million barrels per day — normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Its closure represents the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, according to the IEA's March 2026 Oil Market Report.
By early April 2026, Brent had pulled back to around $92 per barrel as Gulf producers rerouted shipments via alternative routes — particularly Saudi Aramco increasing exports through the Yanbu port on the Red Sea — and emergency stock releases from IEA member nations provided a short-term buffer. But the situation remains deeply uncertain. The conflict shows no signs of a quick resolution, and the market is trading on scenario rather than fundamental equilibrium.
What the Major Forecasters Are Saying
Here is where things get complicated. The institutions that track oil markets most closely are not in agreement — and the gap between them reflects genuinely different assumptions about how long the current disruption lasts.
The EIA's March 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook — released on 10 March — represents the most detailed official view. It forecasts Brent remaining above $95 per barrel through April and May, before falling below $80 in the third quarter as Strait of Hormuz transit gradually resumes. By year-end, the EIA projects Brent around $70 per barrel, with an average of $64 in 2027. The EIA also expects US crude oil production to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026, rising to 13.8 million in 2027 — both record levels.
J.P. Morgan Research, in contrast, holds a more structurally bearish view. The bank sees Brent averaging around $60 per barrel for the full year 2026, arguing that underlying supply-demand fundamentals remain soft and that any geopolitical disruption is unlikely to produce protracted supply outages. Goldman Sachs has been more responsive to the conflict shock, raising its 2026 Brent average to $85 and projecting prices above $110 during the peak Hormuz disruption period. Morgan Stanley lifted its full-year Brent estimate to $80.
💡 Quick Fact: A Reuters poll of analysts in February 2026 placed the consensus Brent forecast at $63.85 per barrel for the full year — that was before the Strait of Hormuz closure. Year-to-date through late February, Brent had already averaged $70.48 per barrel, meaning the annual average will depend almost entirely on how the second half of 2026 plays out.
The divergence between these forecasts is not a sign that any one institution is wrong. It reflects a genuinely binary market: if the conflict resolves quickly and shipping resumes, the underlying bearish fundamentals reassert themselves. If it drags on, the structural surplus becomes irrelevant.
Institution | Full-Year 2026 Brent Forecast | Key Assumption |
|---|---|---|
EIA (March 2026) | ~$70/b by year-end; above $95 near-term | Hormuz gradually reopens by Q3 |
J.P. Morgan | ~$60/b average | Disruption is short; surplus reasserts |
Goldman Sachs | ~$85/b average; $110+ peak | Prolonged disruption scenario |
Morgan Stanley | ~$80/b average | Moderate disruption duration |
Reuters Analyst Poll (Feb 2026) | $63.85/b consensus | Pre-conflict baseline; now likely revised higher |
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast 2026: Quarterly Breakdown by Scenario
This chart compares three 2026 oil price forecast scenarios for Brent crude across four quarters: a bearish baseline (conflict resolves quickly, supply surplus dominates), a moderate central case (disruption fades by Q3), and a bullish risk scenario (Strait of Hormuz remains restricted through year-end). The data reflects projections from the EIA, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley as of March–April 2026, with the near-term consensus anchored above $90 per barrel before potential easing in H2.
Bearish scenario: Brent averages ~$95 in Q1, falls to ~$70 by Q2, ~$58 in Q3, and ~$55 in Q4 as the global supply surplus of 3.7 mb/d reasserts itself
Central scenario: Brent averages ~$95 in Q1, ~$82 in Q2, ~$72 in Q3, and ~$68 in Q4 — broadly in line with the EIA's March 2026 STEO trajectory
Bullish scenario: Brent holds above $100 through Q2, averages ~$90 in Q3, and remains near $85 in Q4 if Hormuz disruptions extend through the second half of the year
The Key Drivers That Will Shape Prices in 2026
Whether you're following oil prices as an investor, a business owner, or simply someone trying to understand fuel costs, these are the four forces that matter most this year.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption is the dominant variable. Before 28 February, this waterway carried roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day — around 20% of global demand. The IEA's March 2026 Oil Market Report describes the situation as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Gulf producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, have been rerouting shipments through the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, increasing exports there to roughly 4 million barrels per day. But this does not fully replace Hormuz capacity, and the longer the closure persists, the more pressure builds on global supply chains and storage facilities.
The pre-existing supply surplus is the counter-force. Before the war, the IEA projected global supply would outpace demand by 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026 — a level not seen since the 2015–2016 price collapse. Non-OPEC+ production from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana was already growing faster than demand. The EIA forecasts US crude production averaging 13.6 million barrels per day this year, a record. Once the Hormuz situation stabilises, this surplus is waiting to reassert itself with force.
OPEC+ production policy adds a third layer of complexity. The eight core OPEC+ members raised their combined output targets by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025, before pausing increases in Q1 2026. The alliance's next formal meeting is scheduled for 7 June 2026. Saudi Arabia holds approximately 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity — a buffer it could deploy to stabilise prices if the conflict eases, or withhold to support revenues if prices fall too far. The IEA estimates that if disruptions end and OPEC+ fails to cut further, a post-war implied surplus of nearly 3.8 million barrels per day would emerge.
Demand-side uncertainty completes the picture. The IEA forecasts 2026 global oil demand growing by around 850,000 barrels per day — modest growth driven largely by non-OECD economies, with China in the lead. OPEC's own research unit is more optimistic, projecting demand growth of 1.4 million barrels per day. That disagreement — nearly a 500,000-barrel-per-day gap — has been a recurring theme since 2020 and reflects differing assumptions about Chinese EV adoption, Indian demand, and the pace of the broader energy transition. For context on how OPEC shapes these dynamics, read What Is OPEC?.
Three Scenarios for the Rest of the Year
Given the complexity above, it helps to think in scenarios rather than point forecasts. Here is how the next three quarters are likely to play out under each one.
In the quick resolution scenario, diplomatic talks — already under way in Oman and Vienna as of late February — produce a ceasefire or de-escalation by late Q2 2026. Hormuz transit resumes. The massive structural supply surplus floods back into the market. Brent falls sharply toward $60–$65 per barrel by Q3 and approaches $55 by year-end as inventories rebuild. J.P. Morgan's full-year average of roughly $60 per barrel becomes plausible. This outcome favours consumers and energy-intensive businesses, but would pressure oil producers and petrostate budgets. Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven is estimated around $80 per barrel, meaning it would be running deficits at these prices.
In the prolonged disruption scenario, the conflict drags through summer. Rerouting through the Red Sea continues but is insufficient and becomes logistically costly. Emergency stock releases from IEA nations help but cannot fill the gap indefinitely. Brent holds above $90 through Q2 and Q3, gradually easing as non-OPEC supply absorbs more demand and diplomatic progress builds. Goldman Sachs's 2026 average of $85 per barrel reflects this path. Higher energy prices feed into inflation across Europe and Asia, creating headwinds for the global economy that the IEA estimates could reduce oil demand by around 1 million barrels per day in Q2–Q3 compared to previous expectations.
In the escalation scenario — a tail risk, but not impossible — fighting spreads to include other Gulf producers' infrastructure, or Iranian retaliation succeeds in damaging Saudi Aramco's export facilities. This is what markets briefly priced for when Brent touched $120 in March. It is also what history warns about: the IEA notes that global supply is projected to plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March, the largest single-month drop ever recorded. A secondary escalation could push Brent well above $120 for a sustained period. For a broader view of how energy shocks transmit through the economy, see Why Oil Prices Affect Inflation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current Brent crude oil price in 2026?
As of early April 2026, Brent crude is trading around $92 per barrel, having pulled back from a peak near $120 in mid-March following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The market remains highly volatile. Brent started 2026 near $63 per barrel before geopolitical events sent prices surging, and the direction from here depends heavily on how quickly Middle East shipping routes normalise. Always check a live financial data source for the most current price.
What is the EIA oil price forecast for 2026?
The EIA's March 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook — its most recent — projects Brent crude remaining above $95 per barrel through April and May, then falling below $80 in Q3 as Strait of Hormuz transit gradually resumes. By year-end, the EIA projects prices around $70 per barrel. The agency also forecasts a full-year 2027 average of $64 per barrel, reflecting an eventual return of supply-demand balance. These projections depend heavily on modelled assumptions about conflict duration.
Why are oil price forecasts for 2026 so different from each other?
The unusually wide range — from roughly $60 to $110 per barrel depending on the institution — reflects one fundamental unknown: how long the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Before the conflict, forecasters largely agreed on a bearish, surplus-dominated year. Since then, each institution has made different assumptions about conflict duration, Gulf rerouting capacity, and demand impact from higher prices. The gap between J.P. Morgan's $60 and Goldman Sachs's $85+ is a function of those diverging assumptions, not analytical error.
How does the Strait of Hormuz closure affect oil prices globally?
Roughly 20% of global oil demand — and 37% of seaborne crude oil trade — normally transits the Strait of Hormuz. When flows through the strait fall sharply, as they did in March 2026, producers in the Gulf must either reroute through alternative pipelines (limited capacity) or cut output. The supply shock reaches every oil-importing nation: Europe, India, Japan, and South Korea are all significant buyers of Gulf crude. Higher energy costs then ripple into transport, manufacturing, and consumer prices across the global economy.
Conclusion
The oil price forecast for 2026 is as uncertain as it has been at any point this decade. The year began with one of the most bearish supply pictures in years — then a geopolitical shock of historic scale rewrote the script in a single week.
What we know: Brent touched nearly $120 per barrel in March, fell back toward $92 by early April, and the next major directional move will be determined by how quickly the Strait of Hormuz situation resolves. The underlying fundamentals — a global supply surplus of up to 3.7 million barrels per day — have not gone away. They are waiting.
The EIA projects Brent falling toward $70 by year-end; J.P. Morgan sees $60; Goldman Sachs prices in $85–110 if disruptions persist.
US crude oil production is on track to hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026, ensuring ample supply once geopolitical risk premiums fade.
For anyone watching energy markets, the single most important variable for the rest of 2026 is the duration of the Middle East conflict and its impact on Strait of Hormuz transit.
